This ruling is a significant moment for the brands and consumers we serve. The past year of tariff uncertainty has undeniably created disruption — and today’s decision creates an opportunity to reset.
On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. Trump that the broad tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not authorize the import duties imposed in 2025,1 a decision that could upend a large portion of duties collected under that law. Estimates suggest $170 billion or more in tariff revenue could be subject to refund,2 highlighting the scale of the disruption faced by importers and brands.
The Supreme Court’s recent decision limiting the use of the IEEPA as a vehicle for broad-based tariffs marks a meaningful shift in trade policy direction. Over the past year, tariffs imposed under IEEPA authority affected goods from major trading partners including Canada, China, and Mexico, adding cost pressure and forcing brands to react quickly to policy volatility.
IEEPA, enacted in 1977, grants the executive branch authority to regulate commerce during declared national emergencies (50 U.S.C. §§ 1701–1707).3 Historically, it was not used as a primary tariff mechanism. Its expanded application introduced significant uncertainty into sourcing and fulfillment strategies, particularly for e-commerce brands operating on tight margins and high inventory costs.
For many of the DTC and B2B brands we serve, this meant restructuring sourcing, repositioning inventory, renegotiating carrier contracts, and in some cases passing costs on to consumers simply to remain viable.
Let me be clear, this ruling does not erase tariffs entirely, nor does it make things suddenly easy for brands. It could potentially remove a source of uncertainty and give brands a moment to reassess, reorganize, and build resilience into the way they source, stock, and sell products. Uncertainty is still the only certainty. President Trump is already taking action and is planning to reinstitute an across the board 10% global tariff, is assessing ways to institute new tariffs, and will likely explore other options as well.
Bottom line, brands need to be prepared for more changes in the coming days and weeks.
What This Ruling Means for Brands
Over the past 18 months, brands of all sizes have grappled with rapidly rising tariffs and a dramatically more complex trade environment. In 2025, the overall U.S. effective tariff rate spiked dramatically, rising as high as an estimated 20-28% of imports at points in the policy cycle, the highest level in nearly a century.4 These levies didn’t just influence landed cost; they forced companies to rethink suppliers, fulfillment, and pricing strategies.
In sectors like apparel and consumer goods, these costs were often absorbed rather than passed directly to consumers, squeezing margins and elevating risk. Tariff volatility also drove inventory hoarding and accelerated shifts in vendor strategies.
The Supreme Court decision does not mean a return to the pre-2025 trade environment. But it does remove a layer of unpredictability from future tariff authority, giving brands a clearer basis for planning ahead.
The Refund Opportunity — And Why Brands Need to Act Now
Analysis from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model indicates that more than $175 billion in tariff collections could be at risk of refund depending on how the ruling is implemented.2 While refund processes are still being defined and may take months or years to resolve, importers have already filed over 1,800 protective cases in the U.S. Court of International Trade to preserve refund rights.1
What brands should do now:
Archive and organize tariff payment data: Track duties paid, classification codes (HTS), and country-of-origin information.
Work with brokers and legal counsel: Understand eligibility windows and procedural requirements for potential refund claims.
Evaluate classification accuracy: Misclassified goods can inflate duty costs and slow customs clearance. Tools exist to audit entries and identify overpayments.
This is where infrastructure becomes a competitive advantage. Brands operating on integrated platforms with real-time inventory and transaction visibility, like Stord’s OMS, already have leverage in diagnosing historical tariff exposure and preparing data for future action.
“This is a massive win for importers, but a very uncertain road ahead for refunds. Don't wait, calculate your exposure and get all of your data together now so you're prepared once formal guidance is provided.” - Raphael Sorser, CEO and founder of Dutywise a full service drawback brokerage.
Brands should also engage consultants and legal firms with deep trade expertise to assess what viable paths exist for refund claims. The legal posture will evolve as implementation guidance emerges. The tariff refund landscape will continue to evolve as implementation guidance emerges; having experienced advisors at the table ensures your brand is positioned to move quickly once refund mechanisms are set in place.
Don’t Expect Full Stability Yet — The Environment Is Still Complex
If the last several years have taught us anything, it’s that trade policy can change faster than operations can pivot.
The administration has signaled that even with IEEPA tariffs curtailed, other statutory authorities remain in place5:
Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974) - used to impose tariffs in response to unfair trade practices, most notably on Chinese imports since 2018. These tariffs still affect roughly $300B+ in goods annually.
Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act of 1962) - national security-based tariffs, including those on steel and aluminum, remain in effect.
Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974) - authorities plan to use this trade power to impose an across-the-board global 10% tariff
Beyond these longstanding authorities, uncertainty remains around countries with which the U.S. had negotiated separate trade agreements. The IEEPA was leveraged in many cases to bring companies to the negotiating table. With the Court limiting that authority, there’s a real question of whether those countries will recalibrate their commitments or back away from previous arrangements now that the leverage once assumed by the President is less certain. For brands, this adds another layer of unpredictability to planning, sourcing, and cost forecasting.
Moreover, as analysts note, trade policy may be redeployed under alternative legal authorities that serve similar economic policy goals. Cost pressure and operational complexity are not going away anytime soon. Many brands anticipated this uncertainty and ran lean on domestic inventory, holding back stock until the Court’s decision was announced. As a result, there may be a sudden influx of imports as companies adjust to the new legal landscape, creating potential short-term congestion at ports and across fulfillment networks.
This environment demands that brands think beyond “refunds” and toward structural resilience. Nearshoring, diversified sourcing, and domestic inventory positioning are trends we do not expect to reverse regardless of this ruling.
The smartest brands are using this moment not to unwind resilience strategies, but to harden them.
What Resilience Looks Like Going Forward
The last several years have made one thing clear: volatility is structural. The brands that outperform in this environment are not the ones waiting for clarity. They are the ones building systems designed to function through uncertainty.
"Tariffs are becoming less of a trade policy issue and more of a supply chain design issue. For e-commerce brands, the real advantage now comes from fulfillment flexibility and the ability to adjust sourcing lanes, reposition inventory across nodes, and manage landed cost dynamically. Companies with distributed fulfillment strategies will be much more resilient to this new level of policy volatility." - Mohannad Gomaa, Consulting Partner and Supply Chain professor at Georgetown
Diversify Sourcing
Relying on a single production geography can expose brands to sudden policy risk, labor disruptions, geopolitical tension, and freight volatility all at once. The strongest operators are building multi-regional sourcing strategies: nearshoring where speed matters, dual-sourcing critical SKUs, and continuously evaluating alternative suppliers before they’re urgently needed. Flexibility is now a core capability in e-commerce. Diversification doesn’t just reduce risk; it increases negotiating leverage, shortens lead times, and gives brands alternatives when conditions change overnight.
Rethink Import Routes
Many brands ran lean on domestic inventory, holding back stock until the Court’s decision was announced. This creates the potential for a sudden influx of imports, causing short-term congestion at ports and added pressure on fulfillment networks. To navigate this, brands should rethink traditional import routes and leverage platforms with real-time freight visibility and flexible lane options that allow teams to pivot when needed.
Invest in Technology & Visibility
You can’t manage what you can’t see. Commerce platforms that provide real-time visibility into SKU-level performance, inventory positions, landed costs, and duty exposure turn uncertainty into quantifiable variables. When leadership teams can simulate tariff outcomes by country, by product, by channel, they move from reactive decision-making to strategic rebalancing. Moreover, procurement teams equipped with AI-driven forecasting and analytics tools consistently report higher readiness to navigate policy shifts because they’re not guessing but modeling the changes and possible outcomes that come with sudden shifts in policy. Visibility compresses response time. And in volatile markets, response time is margin.
Operationalize Scenario Planning
Leading firms treat trade policy the same way they treat demand forecasting or capacity planning: as a scenario to be modeled. They stress-test their fulfillment networks against multiple tariff outcomes. They quantify the impact of shifting production from one geography to another. They evaluate how changes ripple through working capital, pricing strategy, and customer experience. This eliminates reactive firefighting and replaces it with proactive execution.
What This Means for Stord and Our Customers
At Stord, we’re managing over $10 billion in annual commerce and served nearly 20% of U.S. homes in 2025. That level of volume, across thousands of SKUs and a broad mix of DTC and B2B brands, gives us unique insight into what brands are actually experiencing on the ground. That vantage point shapes how we build.
Our recent acquisitions of Shipwire and Ware2Go, along with the launch of our new Dallas fulfillment center, were made in part with the thesis that uncertainty creates opportunity for brands willing to consolidate with a single, trusted partner.
Over the last year, we’ve also expanded internationally through asset-light partnerships, including new 3PL relationships across the EU and UK via Shipwire, and high-growth international customers like IM8. through increased network density, improved carrier rates, and stronger purchasing power across regions. Every new facility and every new brand improves the unit economics of the network for everyone inside it.
Those new facilities and customers have also positioned Stord to better support overseas brands that may prefer to keep operations abroad following the ruling. Not every company will reshore. Not every company should. Some will double down internationally, possibly optimizing fulfillment closer to demand centers outside the U.S. Our global footprint gives brands optionality. They can localize inventory where it makes the most sense while still operating inside a unified commerce infrastructure.
We are also currently evaluating several potential additional acquisitions in international markets to further enable Stord to support brands around the globe.
No Status Quo
This Supreme Court ruling is a reset, not a return to the old normal. Refund pathways may open, and the legal basis for tariffs has narrowed, but the landscape of international trade will continue to evolve.
What brands must do now is not wait for clarity but build systems that can adapt to uncertainty, leverage data to optimize decisions, and deploy technology that turns complexity into a competitive advantage.
The Supreme Court ruling is another dramatic shift in the ongoing turmoil brands have faced with the changing tariff landscape. Our job at Stord is to make sure they come out of this period stronger, faster, and never disrupted by trade policy again.
If you are unsure what this ruling means for your brand, let's talk. We are here to help.
